Strasburgs 2.86 FIP suggests hes outperformed his 3.18 ERA, and his strikeout rate has been stellar. Wainwright did not factor into the decision, allowing five runs on four hits in four innings. This may not seem particularly grandiose, and probably not even close to Cooperstown worthiness, but it should be noted that with sixty-five elected, starting pitcher is far and away the most commonly enshrined position in the Hall (it has also, pre-bullpen expansion, been the most common position, so this shouldnt be too surprising). The 40-year-old right-hander became the ninth active pitcher with 2,000. But compared to Molina or especially Pujols, Adam Wainwright is an underdog. But if it wasn't for . We always prefer to go the surgery route as the last possible resort. Pujols, Wainwright and Molina were each given an introduction and trotted out to the diamond to be greeted by 16 Cardinals Hall of Famers. Even having covered the progress of 17 mid- and late-career players in these two installments, there are a handful who have posted JAWS gains that would fit on the leaderboards and about whom people have questions regarding their Hall progress. And right now, he simply isnt there. Since then, hes made the All-Star team every year, led the league in wins on three occasions, and won a Cy Young award in each league. I suppose well get an update after Wainwright returns to camp after competing for Team USA in the World Baseball Classic. An Alternate Hall of Fame populated by a mathematical formula. Heres a report on Wainwrights Thursday start against the Astros from The Athletics Katie Woo: The velocity on all five of the pitches in his mix averaged between 3-4 mph slower than their average readings in 2022. Ad Choices He trailed 5-0 on a pair of home runs by Tyrone Taylor, a grand slam in the first inning and a solo shot in the fourth. Hey, at least the Cardinals added a proven, quality big-league starting pitcher this past offseason. But I just want to know how far back I would have to dig to find an age-40 season in which a pitcher was good enough to get Adam Wainwright to this level of Hall of Fame worthiness. Scherzer and Hernandez are among a group of pitchers at somewhat similar points in their potential Hall of Fame paths; Verlander, Cole Hamels, Zack Greinke, Adam Wainwright and Jon Lester are in . The minute Adam Wainwright is eligible, he will easily cruise into the St. Louis Cardinals Hall of Fame, with the only possible road block being if he gets caught in the midst of a logjam with Albert Pujols and Yadier Molina (though if the Cardinals were ever going to make an exception and admit three people in one year, this would seemingly be the case). Sure there are. St. Louis Cardinals analyst Brad Thompson joins Blair and Barker to talk about whether Adam Wainwright deserves a nod into the Baseball Hall of Fame, stating you can make the case for the veteran pitcher although hes not a sure-fire candidate yet. Will the games most enigmatic Hall of Fame candidate, a pending free agent this winter, stick around to get it? But I want to consider Adam Wainwrights Hall of Fame case as a purely statistical candidate based on the statistics we currently have. Jos Ramirez, third base (32.8 career | 31.5 Peak | 32.1 JAWS, +4.0 JAWS). Madison Bumgarner is still just 27 years old, but hes already etched his name into baseball lore as one of the greatest big-game pitchers of all-time. If this is the end, Wainwright is leaving behind a solid career. All picks and predictions are suggestions only. document.getElementById( "ak_js_1" ).setAttribute( "value", ( new Date() ).getTime() ); Enter your email address to follow this blog and receive notifications of new posts by email. It just was not the type of career that was worthy of the Hall of Fame. Enter your email below and we'll send you another email. Hes also climbed from 12th to ninth in saves (372) and should easily move past Joe Nathan (377) and Dennis Eckersley (390) within the next year. To be clear, Adam Wainwright will certainly make it onto the Baseball Hall of Fame ballot, and based on the ease with which even seemingly fringe candidates are able to garner them, will probably get some votes. He missed large chunks of his playing career due to injuries, and while this has not always been a deal-breaker for Cooperstown, Wainwrights perfectly fine peak was hardly that of go-to example Sandy Koufax. But compared to Molina or especially Pujols, Adam Wainwright is an underdog. All of the starters have a JAWS of at least 42.0; roughly speaking, thats the equivalent of seven six-win seasons, a point at which I start to take mid-career pitchers seriously. Brooklyn-based Jay Jaffe is a senior writer for FanGraphs, the author of The Cooperstown Casebook (Thomas Dunne Books, 2017) and the creator of the JAWS (Jaffe WAR Score) metric for Hall of Fame analysis. The 40-year . May need surgery, but were not close to making any kind of decision on that. How many times have we heard a version of this spin when a St. Louis pitcher has some discomfort or just needs a little time to build himself up in spring training? Sabermetrics lover. After posting a 3.84 expected ERA in 2022, that metric jumped to 4.53 last season. 163-103, 3.40 ERA, 2,125 strikeouts, 122 adjusted ERA. When Adam Wainwright decides to hang up his cleats, the St.. He made his 55 million dollar fortune with All-Star, St. Louis Cardinals, NL wins leader. 2020 has given us many poor and distasteful things, but it's giving me a glimpse into the future for some wild reason. Poll : Should Adam Wainwright be in the Hall of Fame? With eight All-Star selections, three Cy Young awards, and a World Series ring, Kershaw is probably a lock for election already, but reaching and surpassing some major career milestones would further elevate him in the pantheon. . The slugger hit .274 with 32 homers and 97 RBIs in 160 games last year. 2nd stage: Everything is still on track. While he has never won a Cy Young Award, he was in the top 3 on four occasions. Five years ago, Max Scherzer had no Hall of Fame case. Still, his 2.60 ERA is his lowest since 2017, and his strikeout rate is a solid 29.8%. The Hall of Fame should immortalize the greatest starting pitchers of each era. Even though three different physical problems were cited to explain Wainwrights plummeting velocity and ineffective pitching? Hes actually been tougher to hit than in any season since 2016, but his 14% walk rate has created more traffic than ever, and hes blown five of 35 save chances, though three of those were in consecutive outings in mid-July, accounting for seven of the 16 earned runs hes allowed. Hes 28th in R-JAWS, 1.2 points behind the lowest-ranked enshrined reliever (Bruce Sutter), and at age 33, needs to rebound if hes to have a shot at election that is, if voters will overlook his 2016 suspension under MLBs domestic violence policy, which is uncharted territory for Hall candidates. An error has occurred while trying to update your details. His career just does not stack up to that level. He produced the worst set of metrics in a full season in his career. Flaherty insists hes feeling great this spring. Even if he is able to reach the 200 win threshold, will Wainwright find himself enshrined in the Baseball Hall of Fame? Adam Wainwright is the greatest St. Louis Cardinals pitcher since Bob Gibson, and arguably the greatest St. Louis Cardinals pitcher in history other than Bob Gibson. I sincerely hope Flaherty is fine and that theres no reason for concern. Adam Wainwright. Fantasy baseball: Which prospects have fantasy value in 2023? Adam Wainwright is going to have such an interesting Hall of Fame case once he retires. Are there baseball seasons good enough to get Adam Wainwright past Dwight Gooden? But is 40-year-old Adam Wainwright starting for the visiting Cardinals against the Dodgers in the winner-take-all tilt also on his way to joining Scherzer in the Hall of Fame? I took a look at 10 active starting pitchers with borderline Hall of Fame resumes and broke down their odds of enshrinement. I wouldnt expect Wainwright to be at his best at this stage. Perhaps a new metric will be devised that paints Wainwright in an extraordinary new lightI cant really imagine what said metric would be, but Yadier Molinas career FanGraphs WAR shot up 18.4 wins in one day on which meaningful baseball games werent even played, so I am not going to dismiss the possibility hastily. And while deGromcontinued to blast 100-mph fastball after 100-mph fastball past hitterseven while missing turns here and there due to what were believed (by the Mets, at least) to be minor and disconnected injuries, he finally landed on the IL in early July with forearm inflammation. As his 136 OPS+ and 26 homers attest, he can still rake even at age 40, but with 443 career dingers, hes two seasons away from reaching 500 (42% odds, via ZiPS). Sabathia has largely been a disappointment since signing a nine-figure extension with the team, and he likely wont be retained when his contract expires after this season. Wainwright could become the sixth to add the Hall of Fame to their resume. Reports on Wednesday, October 26th, say that Wainwright will return to the Cardinals for his 19th MLB season with the club, as he continues to chase his 200th career win. His 2011 season, in which he went 24-5 with a 2.40 ERA and led the league in a slew of categories wins, ERA, games started, innings pitched, strikeouts, WHIP, adjusted ERA, and hits allowed per nine innings earned him a distinction that hadnt been accomplished since Roger Clemens in 1986. Mike Trout, center field (76.2 career | 65.1 Peak | 70.6 JAWS, +0.5 JAWS). Required fields are marked *. Aroldis Chapman (18.5 WAR | 19.9 WPA | 12.0 WPA/LI | 16.8 R-JAWS, +0.6 R-JAWS). . Here's how WBC offenses stack up with MLB's best, Scherzer tries to test pitch clock limits, gets balk, Jays 'playing it safe' after Guerrero tweaks knee, PitchCom-tipping: Loud device leaks Twins calls, Eflin's first start after $40M deal impresses Rays, Rangers' Leclerc to miss WBC with neck injury, Rockies' Rodgers may need surgery, '23 at risk, Rojas to withdraw from WBC, stay with Dodgers. That's an average of 174 innings per year. Only Price (2018) and Bumgarner (2019) have pitched enough to qualify for an ERA title once since the 2017 season. The Cardinals and starting pitching and injuries. The bad news is that hell finish his age-35 season still short of 1,200 hits (hes at 1,156), meaning that hed have to average at least 160 a total he hasnt reached since 2016 through his age-40 season just to reach the all-important 2,000. If hes still got the stuff and durability to get to 3,000, the rest of the numbers might fall into place. Wainwright is one of 39 pitchers to record at least 180 wins, 2,000 strikeouts and an ERA of 3.40 or lower while making at least 350 starts and throwing at least 2,300 innings. But he didnt become a full-time starter until his age-24 season, and hes now pitched for a quarter of the American League teams. The wins, strikeouts, ERA and innings were his best since 2014, which appeared to be the last full year of his peak. In his final inning, Wainwright didnt touch higher than 85 mph. Wainwright, 40, who has played for the Cardinals since reaching the majors in 2005, is a three-time All-Star and twice led the National League in wins (2009 and 2013). His 2.2 WAR, meanwhile, edged him closer to the career standard (73.3). Now, Adam Wainwright at any age, while once one of the best pitchers in the sport, never put a season quite that good. And hes no slouch in the regular season Bumgarner is a four-time All-Star with a sub-3.00 career ERA, a high career strikeout rate, and hes even connected for 16 home runs at the plate. Adam Wainwright Position: Pitcher Bats: Right Throws: Right 6-7 , 230lb (201cm, 104kg) Team: St. Louis Cardinals (majors) More bio, uniform, draft, salary info 3x All-Star 2006 World Series 2x Gold Glove Silver Slugger 60 50 Become a Stathead & surf this site ad-free. The best-of-three series would not go in the Cardinals' favor, falling 2-0 to the eventual World Series participant. His sinker averaged 84.9 mph, a 3.7 percent decrease from 2022. Actually, it's two starting pitchers: Jack Flaherty and Adam Wainwright. Justin Verlander has pulled off one of the rare accomplishments for a pitcher winning a league MVP award. Still, just one top-10 Cy Young award finish wont get him in the Hall of Fame. Just want to take care of some minor inflammation after he ramped up his throwing and pitch counts. We didn't recognize that password reset code. Drew move to Atlanta. The just-turned-40-year-old is currently in the midst of a late-career renaissance (2.97 ERA, 3.1 WAR), leaving many to wonder what might have been if not for the injuries that effectively cost him three seasons from ages 29 to 36. No Gavin Lux -- big problem. Adam Wainwright will make history as he will become the seventh pitcher in St. Louis Cardinals history to start a game after his 41st birthday. . Upon losing in the Wild Card round, the franchise's attention shifted to the offseason and what will happen to some of their aging players. Guerrero had an RBI single during the first inning in his lone at-bat. Wainwright was between 38 and 40 years old in this stretch. Queried about his Cooperstown credentials during the Cardinals visit to Citi Field last month, Wainwright grinned while seemingly acknowledging his counting numbers he has 184 wins and 2,004 strikeouts are not going to measure up to most of the starting pitchers enshrined in Cooperstown. Of course, theres no prorating stats when it comes to evaluating Hall of Fame candidates, and so Wainwright appeared to be in the company of the likes of Roy Oswalt Wainwrights most similar pitcher per Baseball-Reference.com Cliff Lee and former teammate Chris Carpenter as pitchers who had terrific peaks but lacked the length for serious Cooperstown consideration. Adam Wainwright, is probably not a Hall of Famer and his 36.7 JAWS likely shouldn't be used as the new . Mandatory Credit: Jeff Curry-USA TODAY Sports. Just to be clear, its not an injury deal; its about him not syncing his body up correctly, and he didnt feel like he was getting the leg drive he typically gets, Cardinals manager Oli Marmol said. The pandemic-shortened 2020 campaign, in which Wainwright went 5-3 with a 3.15 ERA in 10 starts, amounted to a fourth lost season for the right-hander, who missed all of 2011 recovering from Tommy John surgery and made just seven appearances (four starts) due to a torn Achilles in 2015 before he was limited to eight starts by right elbow inflammation in 2018. But theres no alarm. Be the first one to comment on this story. When it comes down to it, Sabathia may find himself in a logjam of other similar pitchers, and if he does get in, it may take him some time. Between that, his three Cy Youngs, and eight All-Star appearances, hes probably punched his ticket even before getting to 200 wins (hes at 187). It happens a lot. Astros @ Cardinals. Laurie Skrivan, St, Louis Post-Dispatch Here's a look at some other top Cardinals not in the Hall of Fame. ago. Adam Wainwright 141-80, 3.23 ERA, 1,547 strikeouts, 124 adjusted ERA 3x All-Star, 2 Gold Gloves, 2 rings Injuries have plagued Adam Wainwright more than the other pitchers on this list; he's going to be 36 in a few months and he's logged just 1,800 innings due to Tommy John surgery (2011) and an Achilles tendon rupture (2015). Adam Wainwright Future Hall of Fame Candidates: N.L. The performance was unsurprisingly unsustainable. The 2022 campaign was supposed to be the last for Adam Wainwright as well, although he has left the door slightly open for a return next year. Your email address will not be published. He was the MVP of the 2014 World Series after two dominant starts and then five scoreless innings off the bench in Game 7, and hes been a key contributor to three championship teams. . It goes something like this . The oldest and wisest twin. You may have created an account with another Rogers Media account that can be used to sign in here. Or could it be that a lot of this is happening because Wainwright is 41 years old and headed to his 42nd birthday on Aug. 30? DRS changes, injuries, and the shortened season have dealt the slugging third basemans case a set of blows in recent years, making it even harder to overcome his late start. In the five innings Wainwright yielded eight hits and four earned runs for a 7.20 ERA. Adam Wainwright's age is 41. Hall of Very Good. Write some stories about it! Wainwright said. MILWAUKEE Adam Wainwright joins Hall of Famer Bob Gibson as the only St. Louis Cardinals pitchers with 2,000 strikeouts, fanning Milwaukees Luis Urias in the fourth inning. Its Wainwrights final MLB season before retirement, and (mostly) anything goes. Outside of Clayton Kershaw, he may be the most dominant pitcher in the game right now; FanGraphs credits Scherzer with more WAR than any non-Kershaw pitcher (25.9) since 2013. I found For this exercise, Im focused mainly on mid- or late-career players rather than early-career ones. To be clear, Adam Wainwright will certainly make it onto the Baseball Hall of Fame ballot, and based on the ease with which even seemingly fringe candidates are able to garner them, will probably get some votes. Those skills may eventually result in a spot in the Hall of Fame. Has Adam Wainwright done enough to deserve a place in the Hall of Fame? Among the sixty-five (again, the number of Hall of Fame starting pitchers) greatest starting pitchers in history, five are either currently active or retired but not yet Hall eligibleJustin Verlander, Clayton Kershaw, Max Scherzer, Zack Greinke, and CC Sabathia. Gibson, who died last October, finished with 3,117. While these numbers are impressive, they may not be enough to convince voters that Adam Wainwright is a Hall of Famer. Annual promotional dates for the Purina Pooches in the Ballpark game and Edward Jones Cardinals Hall of Fame Weekend are scheduled for April 30 and August 26-28, respectively. The three Cy Young Awards should be enough to get him into the Hall of Fame. . If he can maintain this kind of dominance for a few more years, hell get to Cooperstown. Rolen, a member of the Cardinals Hall of Fame, was welcomed to the 'family' of Hall of Famers during an event and press conference Feb. 28, 2023 in Cooperstown, N.Y. He founded the Futility Infielder website (2001), was a columnist for Baseball Prospectus (2005-2012) and a contributing writer for Sports Illustrated (2012-2018). It airs Monday through Thursday from 3-6 p.m. and Friday from 4-6 p.m. You can listen by streaming online or by downloading the show podcast at 590thefan.com or the 590 app. Hes got three seasons of 3.0 WAR or less as part of his peak score and has a good shot at continuing his big strides in the next few years. But Wainwright proved his solid 2020 wasnt a brief mirage. The best pitcher in MLB? Even in the he falls short but not short enough to not make it hypothetical, the easiest path is likely for Adam Wainwright to post 8.1 WAR under both methods. Strasburg hasnt been a disappointment, but he also hasnt lit the world on fire.
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